In early 2026, the core supply side of the global potash fertilizer market was affected by multiple factors, intensifying the resource competition and impacting global agricultural security. On January 20th, BHP Billiton announced that the total cost of the Jansen potash fertilizer project in Canada had risen from the initial 5.7 billion US dollars to 8.4 billion US dollars (an increase of 47%), putting pressure on the project's progress.
Morgan Stanley recently upgraded the rating of the world's largest potash fertilizer producer, Nutrien, to "buy," believing that the global potash fertilizer market is entering a "longer-term tight" phase, which will support potash fertilizer prices, profit growth, and valuation multiples at least until 2028.
These series of events actually depict a pattern of optimizing global potash fertilizer stock capacity and limiting new capacity expansion, with market supply becoming tighter. For China, which has only 6% of global potash salt reserves and a self-sufficiency rate of less than 30%, the changes in the global supply pattern have once again brought the long-term core proposition of independent potash fertilizer supply to the forefront.
The cost of the Jansen project by BHP Billiton exceeding expectations is not an isolated case but an industry reflection of the predicament of new potash mine capacity development. It has been disclosed that since July 2025, due to underestimating construction time and material usage in the early stage, combined with global inflation, project design optimization and scope adjustments, the total cost has significantly increased. In fact, the development of new potash salt mines worldwide is facing common challenges: significantly extended project construction periods, technical breakthrough bottlenecks brought by complex geological conditions, and uncertainties such as policy changes in resource countries, etc., which have significantly weakened the global potash fertilizer incremental supply capacity.
Morgan Stanley believes that the fundamentals of potash fertilizer are stronger than expected, and the revised supply and demand outlook challenges the pattern of slowing after the recovery of demand in history. Compared with 2025, the price of potash fertilizer will moderately increase in 2026. Data shows that due to global supply and demand tensions in 2025, the domestic potash fertilizer price in China increased by 27% throughout the year, and the price increase in the Southeast Asian market also reached 20.3%. The transmission effect of high prices on agricultural production is gradually emerging.
In 2024, the top four import sources of potassium chloride in China were Russia, Belarus, Canada, and Laos, accounting for a total of 91.3%. The import channels were highly concentrated. Geopolitical fluctuations and international capacity delays have impacted the stability of import supply, forcing China to accelerate the adjustment of import structure and reduce single reliance.
Under the background of domestic production and the restricted traditional international supply channels, the rise of overseas Chinese potash fertilizer bases has become the third pole support, gradually enhancing China's control over potash fertilizer resources and strengthening the national guarantee line for potassium fertilizer supply for national food security.
