International fertilizer prices continue to fall In 2022, the Russia-Ukraine crisis will lead to a decrease in Russia's fertilizer exports, combined with a decline in fertilizer production in Europe due to soaring natural gas prices, and my country's legal inspection of fertilizer exports will also reduce the supply to the international market. Driven by many factors, the international price of fertilizers has reached reached a record level. However, from the second half of 2022 to the present, the situation has reversed. Under the influence of factors such as the decline in natural gas prices, the alleviation of supply chain problems, and the warm winter in Europe, international fertilizer prices have continued to decline. As of early February, international fertilizer prices have fallen to their lowest point in 19 months, while retail prices have also fallen to their lowest level in 15 months. International fertilizer prices have fallen by about half from their peak in March-April 2022: urea The price has dropped from a high of US$900 to about US$400; the price of phosphate fertilizer has dropped from a high of more than US$1,000 to about US$600; the price of potash fertilizer has dropped from a high of US$800 to US$900 to about US$500 today. Spring plowing is imminent, domestic fertilizer prices are still high Since the second half of 2022, if the international fertilizer market is described as "falling and falling", the domestic market has shown a trend of "easy to rise but hard to fall". "When a foreign country rises, the domestic market will rise, and when the foreign country falls, the domestic market will not fall--only rise, not fall" that sentence! Before 2023, due to factors such as fluctuations in raw material prices and the disturbance of the epidemic, there are still arguments for the high price of chemical fertilizers. Now it is a bit untenable to use external factors such as international prices and costs to justify the high price of chemical fertilizers. , especially the main nitrogen fertilizer species - urea. While realizing self-sufficiency in my country's urea supply, there is still surplus export. Moreover, since the official implementation of the urea law inspection on October 15, 2021, urea exports have dropped significantly. According to customs statistics, in 2022, my country will export a total of 2.83 million tons of urea, a year-on-year decrease of 46.5%. Under the premise of relatively stable large-scale production capacity, domestic urea supply and demand show a weak pattern of oversupply. However, in contrast, the price of urea, after rising to a high level around mid-June 2022 and falling, has shown a fluctuating upward trend from the end of the third quarter as a whole.
